Thanks to their performances throughout the year, four players have already qualified to compete in the 2026 Masters at the Inalpi Arena from November 15 to 22. Jannik Sinner was the first among them but will not participate in order to treat his right knee. The player ranked 9th in the PIF ATP Rankings will therefore have the chance to compete alongside the best players of 2026.
Five spots remain to be filled, and Arthur Fils is on the edge as many players can still mathematically claim a ticket.
The Novak Djokovic Barometer
To predict the minimum number of points required, Novak Djokovic’s situation is interesting: the tireless Serbian received a wildcard for the ATP 500 in Basel and will obviously play the Rolex Paris Masters (Masters 1000) with the goal of securing qualification.
In the event of strong performances in these two tournaments, he could push his total up to 3,640 points. Currently ranked 11th in the ATP Race, this gives us a good indication of the points the other contenders need to target.
The Chasers: Tommy Paul, Taylor Fritz, and Jakub Menšík
Tommy Paul, Taylor Fritz, and Jakub Menšík are trailing but not completely out of the race. Ranked 12th, 13th, and 14th respectively, they must hope for several missteps from rivals while delivering massive performances themselves.
- The first on the list was knocked out in the Shanghai quarterfinals, allowing him to stay in the race with 2,585 points. Tommy Paul is showing all his talent at the end of this season and will need to continue doing so, particularly in Vienna and Paris, where reaching the final would be highly beneficial. This scenario would earn him 930 points, ending the season with 3,515 points. Likely insufficient, meaning winning a title is mandatory.
- Taylor Fritz has committed to 3 tournaments: Lyon, Basel, and Paris, which offer a total of 1,750 points if he wins the titles. This is why he can still reach the Masters in Turin, but given his form and the competitors he will face, there is little chance he will collect more than 500 points.
- The same goes for Jakub Menšík: despite an interesting profile on hard courts, grabbing 1,000 points in Vienna and Paris would be nothing short of a miracle. For both players, only titles will grant them access to the Masters.
The Fierce Battle: De Minaur, Tiafoe, Jodar, and Fils
Alex de Minaur (10th) is the first unqualified player with 2,880 points. He will try to clinch qualification in Vienna and Paris, where everything will be decided. He has solid references indoors and could very well play the spoilsport until the end. His point deficit still forces him to reach at least the semifinals of the Rolex Paris Masters to achieve a minimum Race score of 3,480 points.
He could well catch up to Frances Tiafoe (7th). The American withdrew from the ATP Lyon due to a leg injury. With 3,380 points on the clock, he hopes to play the ATP 500 in Vienna on October 26 and the Paris Masters. Due to his current form, it is difficult to see him passing the Round of 16.
Rafael Jodar (9th) and Arthur Fils (8th), with 3,159 and 3,325 points respectively, are virtually qualified. They must resist the potential comebacks of Alex de Minaur and Novak Djokovic. With the cutoff predicted around 3,600 points, the Spaniard will need to secure 450 points, for example by reaching the final in Basel and the quarterfinals in Paris. Nothing is guaranteed for Jodar, while the Frenchman is playing this week in Brussels. A title would almost permanently secure his spot, allowing him to approach Basel and Paris with less pressure.
Almost in the Bag: Cobolli and Medvedev
Flavio Cobolli is in the best position to travel to Turin. Currently in 5th place in the Race rankings with 3,540 points, he will play for an additional 250 points in Lyon. He is also expected to play the ATP 500 in Vienna during the week of October 26 before stepping onto the court at the Défense Arena. The Roland-Garros finalist is capable of playing at a high level on hard courts, but his indoor results are mixed. A target of 3,900 points before the season closes is feasible.
Daniil Medvedev (6th) has 3,420 points and the advantage of playing the ATP 250 in Almaty as the favorite. Formidable on indoor hard courts, Medvedev could very well capture the title, which would practically hand him his ticket to the ATP Finals.
Summary of the Race to Turin
After reviewing the form, schedules, and points of all contenders, only Frances Tiafoe seems to be in danger to me. Alex De Minaur or Novak Djokovic could then take his place depending on their respective results. Watch out for the others; a minimum number of victories will be necessary to stay on track. Injuries or other surprises could easily happen… Lyon, Almaty, Vienna, Basel, and Paris: the end of the season promises to be more than interesting.
ATP Race Rankings Projections (End of Season)
| Player | Current Points | Remaining Tournaments | End of Season Projection |
| Flavio Cobolli | 3,540 | Lyon, Vienna, Paris | ≈ 3,900 points |
| Daniil Medvedev | 3,420 | Almaty, Vienna, Paris | ≈ 4,000 points |
| Frances Tiafoe | 3,380 | Vienna, Paris | ≈ 3,530 points |
| Arthur Fils | 3,325 | Brussels, Basel, Paris | ≈ 3,975 points |
| Rafael Jodar | 3,159 | Basel, Paris | ≈ 3,659 points |
| Alex de Minaur | 2,880 | Vienna, Paris | ≈ 3,480 points |
| Novak Djokovic | 2,840 | Basel, Paris | ≈ 3,640 points |
| Tommy Paul | 2,585 | Lyon, Vienna, Paris | ≈ 3,515 points |
| Taylor Fritz | ≈ 2,500 | Lyon, Basel, Paris | ≈ 3,000 points |
| Jakub Menšík | ≈ 2,500 | Vienna, Paris | ≈ 3,000 points |
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