The R128 is behind us and the draw is beginning to clear. Hurkacz is out, Tsitsipas eliminated — big names falling earlier than expected. The question is: who among the remaining 64 players can cause a real upset and go deep into the tournament?
We weren’t looking for who might win their next match — we were looking for players with the potential to genuinely surprise and reach the semifinals or even the final.
🃏 #1 — Denis Shapovalov
The Canadian made an immediate statement in R128, eliminating Tsitsipas in straight sets. Shapovalov on a good day plays tennis that can trouble anyone — aggressive backhand, unexpected angles and enormous self-belief. Indian Wells suits his game. If he maintains that form, he could go very far.
Why he can surprise: The win over Tsitsipas was no fluke — it’s a signal. The obstacle: Etcheverry in R64, potentially Sinner later.
🃏 #2 — Alex Kovacevic
The qualifier who eliminated Hurkacz 7-6, 7-6 in a match where the Pole had no answers. Kovacevic plays without pressure — he has nothing to lose. Players like that are the most dangerous on hard court in Indian Wells.
Why he can surprise: Qualifier with no pressure + R128 form = dangerous combination. The obstacle: Moutet in R64, potentially Đoković later.
🃏 #3 — Dino Prižmić
The young Croatian showed real mental strength in R128 against Schoolkate. Prižmić is not in the draw by accident — he plays freely, without fear and with a confidence that exceeds his years. In R64 he faces Fils — if he gets through, an interesting section of the draw opens up.
Why he can surprise: Youth, freedom of play and nothing to lose. The obstacle: Fils in R64 — a tough test immediately.
🃏 #4 — Gaël Monfils
A wild card at 38 years old — but don’t be fooled. Monfils always plays well in Indian Wells, he loves the crowd and the crowd loves him. In R128 he dispatched Galarneau without trouble. The athleticism and experience are still there.
Why he can surprise: Experience + motivation + a crowd that adores him. The obstacle: Auger-Aliassime in R64 — younger and technically dangerous opponent.
🎯 Our top pick: Shapovalov
If one player could cause a real upset and reach the semifinals or final — it’s Shapovalov. The win over Tsitsipas was no accident, the form is there and his section of the draw is not impossible.
Follow TennisSignals for daily analysis and results from Indian Wells.
For the full draw and results, visit our Indian Wells 2026 Hub.
For the complete 2026 ATP season schedule, visit our ATP Tennis Calendar 2026.